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Saturday, August 14, 2010

Teams That Can Benefit Most From Adding Antti Niemi


It’s not common for a player to go from Stanley Cup Champion to unrestricted free agent in the fashion that 26-year old Finnish goaltender Antti Niemi did. Though he sought a salary believed to be in the range of $3-4 million a season on a long-term deal with the Chicago Blackhawks, he also filed for salary arbitration and accepted the possibility of making less. Unfortunately for him, General Manager Stan Bowman did not accept the very fair offer of $2.75 million given to Niemi by the arbitrator because of the ‘Hawks’ tight salary cap situation. Instead, they signed Marty Turco to a one year, $1.3 million deal and sent Niemi to the unrestricted free agent market one year earlier than he otherwise would have been eligible.

Now it is time to see if the offseason spent playing hardball by Niemi and his agent, Bill Zito, will result in a more fruitful situation for the 42-regular season game NHL “veteran.” Although no exact list of interested teams has come to light, let’s take a look at some teams that could most benefit from adding Niemi into their goaltending corp.

Columbus Blue Jackets: Over the years, the Columbus Blue Jackets have worked hard to get out of the basement and actually become a playoff contender. Two years ago, they realized that goal by making the postseason for the first time in the franchise’s 10–year history. The team’s ability to get there was due, in large part, to the play of then-rookie goaltender Steve Mason, who received the Calder Memorial Trophy for his phenomenal play throughout the season.

Unfortunately, Mason’s sophomore season included a slump and he didn’t play near to the level of his first year in the league. As a result, the Blue Jackets went back to the outside looking in on the playoff picture. Some doubt now exists over Mason’s ability to backstop this club into a perennial contender.

Of course, there is hope that he can find his game next season. That would truly be the best case scenario for Columbus, since his rookie play was far better than anything Niemi will offer. But if Mason’s career goes the way of Andrew Raycroft, it’ll be hard to hand over the keys to the car to him too much longer. The Blue Jackets may need to seek a more consistent net presence, which will be not Mathieu Garon either.

Niemi would provide an upgrade from what Mason offered a season ago and would be a suitable replacement. The Blue Jackets likely wouldn’t get rid of Mason and would figure out a way to work Niemi’s playing time around spotting Mason 20-25 games through the season, as well. It would just leave Garon as the odd man out. And his $1.2 million salary can either be dealt or very easily buried in the AHL, where he would spend a season in Syracuse before becoming an unrestricted free agent next summer.

Aaron Portzline of The Columbus Dispatch disagrees with this notion, and feels that Columbus is pretty well set with Mason and Garon. But as Bruce Ciskie of Fanhouse points out, it all depends on the confidence the Blue Jackets have in Mason. After last year, you have to wonder …

New York Islanders: According to NHLSourcesSay, the New York Islanders have actually expressed an interest in signing Niemi to a deal in the neighborhood of two or three years. That is somewhat surprising considering the Islanders remain on the hook for Rick DiPietro’s $4.5 million annual salary for the next 11 years and Dwayne Roloson is owed another $3 million on the final year of his two-year contract next season.

But this move would make some sense in the long run. At 40 years old, Roloson doesn’t have a whole lot of time left in the NHL. And for as impossible as it would be to deal away DiPietro’s contract, the Islanders cannot keep clinging to it when the man continuously gets injured every season. The Islanders must seek the services of a healthier and more dependable young goalie.

Niemi can fill that role. And all the Islanders would have to do is put themselves in the same situation as last season when they had a three-headed goalie combination of Roloson, DiPietro and Martin Biron. Niemi would be the No. 1 guy with DiPietro as the backup and Roloson as the No. 3, ready to step in when DiPietro inevitably goes down with a hang nail.

And don’t discount the Islanders' incredible cap flexibility. They are just $226,650 above the salary floor next season and have over $20 million in cap space. There is plenty of room to fit Niemi into their financial landscape.

New Jersey Devils: This option is more wishful thinking and geared toward two years from now when Martin Brodeur’s contract expires and it’s likely that the then 40-year old will retire. At that point, the Devils will sorely need a No. 1 option to at least try to replace some of the production Brodeur has offered throughout the years. And there is currently nobody in their system even remotely capable of doing so.

Enter Niemi.

He could instantly take over starting duties once Brodeur leaves the game and benefit greatly from the defensive system in New Jersey – even if it will be toned down a bit under Head Coach John MacLean.

While both parties would certainly benefit from this marriage, it is very unlikely to happen right now.

First of all, Niemi isn’t going to just sit by and play second fiddle to another goalie after coming off a campaign in which he won a Stanley Cup. And he’s certainly not going to do that while playing all of four games a season because we all know Brodeur is suiting up for at least 78 games each regardless of what the organization tells us.

Also, the Devils inked Johan Hedberg as a backup goalie this offseason for a contract worth $1.5 million, including bonuses, that has a no-trade clause attached. Since it’s not a no-movement, the Devils could just bury him in the minors. But that would seem like an awfully harsh thing to do to a guy that was just signed and has proven over his career to be a more-than-adequate backup goaltender. Trading him could work, but then he would need to waive his restriction and the Devils would need to find a suitor willing to spend a million and a half bucks on a backup before the season even starts. That’s more like trade deadline wheeling-and-dealing.

If this was two years from now and the Devils’ starter spot was already vacant, this would be a no brainer pickup for Lou Lamoriello. But Niemi is too expensive a play given the currently filled goaltending situation in New Jersey.

Maybe if he signs a two-year deal somewhere else, this possibility could be revisited in the summer of 2012.

Philadelphia Flyers: The instant the Blackhawks chose to walk away from Niemi’s award, the first team that presented the best case for going after him was the Philadelphia Flyers. They seemingly settled on returning their duo from last season in Michael Leighton and Brian Boucher. But a reported offer worth about $2 million per season to Marty Turco left some indication that they were always aiming higher. Why then search any further than the goaltender who beat them in the Stanley Cup Finals?



General Manager Paul Holgmren put the kibosh on this idea right away, according to CSNPhilly’s Tim Panaccio. And the fact that the team has under $900,000 in remaining cap space has to play a large role in that. But if shedding the salaries of Boucher and one of the far-too-many defensemen currently on the roster would net them enough space to bring in Niemi, he would represent an upgrade from the Leighton-Boucher tandem.

That upgrade might be marginal on paper because Niemi’s play last year could be a flash in the pan. But the 29-year old Leighton has been a journeyman goaltender his entire career with just 103 games played to his name over six seasons with four different teams. He got hot last season, but that doesn’t change the fact that he has been nothing more than a mediocre backup for the majority of his career in the NHL. Boucher, too, has never been the most reliable starter and is nothing more than a backup to this point in his career.

Niemi’s 42 games over two seasons doesn’t appear to be that much more of a ringing endorsement. And it’s a large reason why he does not yet deserve the $4 million per year he was, and possibly still is, seeking this summer. But his NHL career is just beginning, whereas Leighton and Boucher have had years to prove themselves as something other than the low-tier options they currently are.

At this point, Holmgren seems focused on going into 2010-11 with Leighton and Boucher, as well as Johan Backlund lurking in the corner to steal some playing time should one of those two falter. But if he examined his roster and figured out a way to chuck $3 off the payroll, it would be wise to think about a Niemi-Leighton goaltending duo for next season instead.

San Jose Sharks: When San Jose Sharks General Manager Doug Wilson made the decision to let Evgeni Nabokov go in an effort to get cheaper in net, he also sacrificed some quality at the position. Wilson inked Antero Niittymaki to a two-year, $4 million deal for the purpose of playing starter while the still largely untested Thomas Greiss will sport the backup role. Niittymaki and Greiss sure do represent a less expensive 1-2 punch than Nabokov at No. 1 alone. However, they still leave plenty to be desired in actual productivity when compared to what Nabokov has offered during his 10-year tenure with the Sharks.

Now, Niemi won’t necessarily step in and replace the 40 wins per season Nabokov contributed in each of the last three seasons. But a duo of Niemi and Niittymaki sure does sound a lot more appealing than one with Niittymaki and Greiss. Niemi would obviously play the starter role. But, as in Columbus with Mason, he wouldn’t need to shoulder an ultra-heavy workload. Niemi could take on 55-60 games while resting up for 20-30 when Niittymaki gets the call, which is a range right on par with when he was most productive as a member of the Philadelphia Flyers.

Niemi would also allow Wilson to remain cost-conscious, as there is no way he would attain a figure near the $5- to 6-million Nabokov was believed to be pursuing in an NHL contract.

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Worth Mentioning: Three other teams that have been tossed around and speculated about are the Washington Capitals, Atlanta Thrashers and Dallas Stars. While Niemi could probably do well in any of those three scenarios, those organizations already appear to be set with other reasonable options.

Washington is going to give Semyon Varlamov and Michal Neuvirth a crack at defending the crease instead keeping them relegated to backup and AHL duties.

Atlanta will give Ondrej Pavelec every chance to move in as their new No. 1. But if he doesn’t work out, unrestricted free agent signee Chris Mason is a suitable replacement to step into that spot.

Dallas might be the most intriguing possibility of the three, because there are doubts about the current combination of Kari Lehtonen and Andrew Raycroft. But it’s only fair to give Lehtonen a shot outside of the horrible Atlanta teams he has backstopped. And Raycroft redeemed himself last year as a pretty good backup goalie for the Vancouver Canucks.

While those three organizations are option, they remain pretty unlikely ones.

*Salary and Cap figures courtesy of CapGeek.com*

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